Both AUD and EUR are up a significant amount over the last couple weeks. However if we do not see a meaningful break above the previous highs of 1.1900 then I do see consolidation in EURUSD, and a possible downtrend beginning to form once again for the pair. We have the ECB this week but not much is expected to be announced there, as many believe polices will remain unchanged until the FED begin to make changes themselves. Most pairs are very range bound it seems at the moment, so I am currently holding no positions but it will be interesting to see what happens once this cycle begins to break hopefully now we enter September.
What are your thoughts on markets, and what currency pairs are beginning to catch your eye?
Key events to keep any eye on this week:
- RBA Interest Rate Decision
- EUR GDP
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
More to come Thursday.
This blog is a personal view and not advise or the views of the Corellian Academy.
Read the latest from Tommy.
December 6, 2021
The pound still looks weaker compared to other currencies, especially the US, as MPC members continue to doubt the timing of the first rate hike. I remain short of GBPUSD at 1.3330 from last week but have locked in some profit by moving my stop loss down to 1.3290. The next key resistance of 1.3202 […]
November 29, 2021
Uncertainty is creeping back into markets as a new Covid variant Omicron has been identified, so a spike in volatility is to be expected. While its still very early days, this variant seems to be spreading quickly within the U.K. which is now reporting more and more cases. On top of this Richard was also […]
November 18, 2021
I still remain all square as we move into the latter part of the week. However, I still see a lower euro even though it is substantially down across the board this week. Yesterday we saw EURGBP break below 0.8400 for the first time since February 2020, exacerbated by very strong UK CPI figures released […]
November 15, 2021
USD still looking the strongest out of the G10. However, , I bought back the rest of my cable at 1.3440 because, as was mentioned in the SNPMO, Sterling’s technicals have seen a slight improvement and we could see a correction this week (Especially when you also take into consideration a more hawkish Bailey yesterday , saying a hike in December is […]
November 11, 2021
A very volatile week up to this point with cable falling down below 1.3400, breaking through key support of 1.3412 (However it will need to close below this level for further bearish sentiment to continue.) This is mainly due to US CPI jumping 6.2% in October which is the largest increase since 1990. These figures alone speak […]
November 8, 2021
An interesting start to the week as surprisingly we have seen a slightly weaker dollar, with cable now trading close to the 1.36 handle. This comes as a shock to me especially after the strong ISM figures and the Fed last week. However, I do see this as just a slight reversal in what is an ongoing downtrend for cable so I have sold cable at 1.3580 with my stop […]
November 4, 2021
Yesterday was an action packed day for markets. We started the day with further dovish comments from Lagarde as she stated a rate hike next year is unlikely. Then on top of the highest ever ISM Services reported out of the US, the fed announced tapering this month, with a hike likely early next year. Off the back of this we […]
November 1, 2021
Last night we saw a surprisingly dovish statement come out of the RBA as they stated they would be patient and not bow to market pressure to hike rates. This caused AUD to slip against most currencies, however the move wasn’t severe, and still leaves intact the stronger technicals that Richard highlighted in this week’s webinar. So I am looking at […]
October 28, 2021
After the ECB meeting where Lagarde failed to dampen rate hike expectations I was stopped around my entry level of 1.1640 in EURUSD and given I am now flat I will be steering clear from the USD for now as uncertainty creeps back in. I am now looking towards the AUD and opportunities to buy. This is mainly […]
October 25, 2021
EURUSD started the week looking to break the initial resistance at 1.1610, a negative technical sign for the pair, which reinforces my belief the Euro will continue to fall as we head into the ECB meeting. Therefore I will be keeping my short at 1.1645 up until that point and then reassess my position as we reach the meeting. Even afterwards […]
October 21, 2021
So far this week the dollar seems to have struggled against other G10 currencies, and now EURUSD is fluctuating in a fairly tight range in the mid 1.16 area after mixed US data was released. I now look forward to tomorrow’s numbers where we see PMI’s released out of both Europe and the US. I do favour the idea of a slight correction in this weeks […]
September 20, 2021
EURUSD has surpassed a key support of 1.1757 at the latter stage of last week, and now all eyes look towards 1.1695 as a very major support line and if broken, a large head and shoulders top will come into play in turn Exposing support of 1.1495. Very event/data driven week this week as we have both […]